On January 26, 2010 Oregon voters approved two legislatively-enacted tax increase measures. Before the election, Cascade Policy Institute asked two prominent Oregon economists, Drs. Randall Pozdena and Eric Fruits, to analyze the impact that these measures will have on the state economy. Using two different methods, they concluded that the earlier preliminary estimates by Drs. William Conerly and Randall Pozdena of 70,000 jobs lost over time are…
…entirely plausible and may even be conservative. Their study looks at more than just job losses, and cites a large body of economic literature that clearly demonstrates the negative effects of raising marginal tax rates on economic growth and employment growth.
Check out the Aug 26, 2010 update from Steve Buckstein showing Cascade employment predictions from last year nearly in-step with current state projections.
Measures 66 and 67 will cost 70,000 Oregonians their jobs!
January 4, 2010
Initial Media Release
Oregon Economists Expand on the Negative Effects of Measure 66 and 67 Tax Increases
Printable PDF version
The Effects of Measures 66 and 67
by Eric Fruits, Ph.D. and Randall Pozdena, Ph.D.
Click HERE to read William Conerly and Randall Pozdena’s voters pamphlet statement
- Cascade Policy Institute Stands by Economic Analysis
of Job Losses due to Measures 66 and 67
Measure 66 (personal income tax increase)
- Taxing the “Wealthy” More Will Cost 36,000 Oregon Jobs
by William Conerly, Ph.D.
Dr. Conerly is principal of Conerly Consulting LLC, chief economist of abcInvesting.com, and was previously Senior Vice President at First Interstate Bank. He is author ofBusinomics: From the Headlines to Your Bottomline: How to Profit in Any Economic Cycle. He is co-author of Thinking Economics, a high school textbook in multimedia format used in 24 states. He is also chairman of the board of Cascade Policy Institute, and a Senior Fellow at the National Center for Policy Analysis.
Measure 67 (corporate tax increases)
- Raising Oregon’s Corporate Income Tax Rate Will Cost 43,000 Oregon Jobs
by Randall Pozdena, Ph.D.
Dr. Pozdena is President of QuantEcon, Inc., and Managing Director of ECONorthwest, two Oregon-based consultancies. His specialty is quantitative economics and financial analysis, which he has practiced in Portland since 1991. Prior to that time, he was a Research Vice President for the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco and a Senior Economist at the Stanford Research Institute. He has taught economics and finance at the Graduate School of Business, University of California, Berkeley and at the Graduate School of Administration, University of California, Irvine. Pozdena earned his B.A. in Economics from Dartmouth College and his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of California, Berkeley. He is a member of the CFA Institute, and has served on numerous non-profit, university, and private investment boards. He is former Chair of the Oregon Investment Council, which manages the Oregon PERS assets.
Further M66 and M67 analysis and commentary
- Killing Jobs with Tax Increases
by Steve Buckstein,
Cascade Policy Institute Senior Policy Analyst
- A reasoned debate on Measures 66 and 67
Oregonian reporter Jeff Mapes praises a television debate including Cascade economist Eric Fruits. Watch the video here.
Related economic analysis
- Two Job-Killer bills threaten to destroy ten to twenty times more jobs
than Oregon’s so-called “stimulus package” has created
Cascade Media Release, 2009
- How much does state government cost each Oregonian?
- Does Oregon spend too much?
- Business Taxation: A Loose Cannon on a Dark Night
- The Ranking of Oregon State and Local Spending
Fruits and Pozdena, 2008