Policy Picnic – October 28, 2015


Please join us for our monthly Policy Picnic led by Cascade President and CEO John A. Charles, Jr.


Topic: Portland-Milwaukie Light Rail: Comparing Promises with Reality 

Description: TriMet’s newest MAX line opened on September 12. At $210 million per mile, this was the most expensive light rail line in Portland history. Now that it’s open, is it making the traveling public better off?

In this seminar, we revisit the Utopian predictions made by transit planners in 2008, and measure those against the early performance of the line.

There is no charge for this event, but reservations are required as space is limited.  To reserve your free tickets, click here.

Admission is free. Please feel free to bring your own lunch.
Coffee and cookies will be served. 
 
Sponsored by:
Dumas Law Group

TriMet Violates Clean Air Act While “Regulators” Stay Silent

In previous decades the Portland region failed to meet national air quality standards for carbon monoxide pollution and was designated a “non-attainment” area under the federal Clean Air Act. As a result, the region was required to develop and implement strategies to reduce carbon monoxide.

One of the strategies is that TriMet must increase transit service by 1% annually for the period 2006-2017, on the premise that more transit service will reduce auto-related carbon monoxide emissions. TriMet’s compliance must be measured on the basis of a 5-year “rolling average” of actual hours of service. The “baseline year” for compliance is 2004 and includes the opening of the Yellow MAX line, which began operating that year. This strategy was specifically devised by TriMet to grandfather in the Yellow line, thus giving the agency the best chance for compliance.

However, even with this advantage, TriMet has not met the obligation to increase service. In fact, TriMet service has been steadily decreasing. This is a potential problem not only for TriMet, but for other local governments. If the Portland region were to be found out of compliance with the Clean Air Act, the federal government could delay or cancel federal dollars for such projects as Milwaukie light rail and the Columbia River Crossing. For regional politicians, this would be a disaster.

In January, the crisis was taken up by one of the obscure committees run by Metro―the Transportation Policy Advisory Committee (TPAC), comprised mostly of local government bureaucrats. TPAC agreed to recommend that compliance be measured on the basis of cumulative average of service hours for the 10-year period 2007-2017. The new “baseline year” would become 2008.

After TPAC, the plan had to be approved by the Oregon Environmental Quality Commission (EQC), the governing board for the state DEQ. The EQC took testimony in August and rubber-stamped the TPAC recommendation in early December.

Last week the issue moved to JPACT, another obscure Metro committee that approves all regional transportation spending. The free pass for TriMet was quickly approved.

The final stop will be the Metro Council, which will approve the change on December 19.

Sadly, none of the four entities approving the recommendation ever seriously considered enforcing the Clean Air Act. The top priority at every level has been to craft an escape hatch so that business as usual can continue. However, even a cursory look at the evidence would have shown that TriMet had no excuses for non-compliance.

For example, Metro/TriMet/DEQ have all claimed that the “abrupt drop” in TriMet service was “caused by the recent deep recession.” However, as shown in Table 1, the drop in TriMet fixed-route service has not been abrupt; both hours of service and miles of service were lower in 2012 than they were in 2004, so this has been a problem for years.

 

Table 1

Annual Fixed Route Service Trends for TriMet

2004-2012

 

FY 04

FY 06

FY 08

FY 10

FY 12

Change

Veh. revenue hours

1,698,492

1,653,180

1,712,724

1,682,180

1,561,242

-8.1%

Veh. revenue miles

27,548,927

26,830,124

26,448,873

25,781,480

23,625,960

-14.2

Moreover, the recession had little to do with the cuts because TriMet’s operating budget has grown by 62% since 2004 (Table 2).

Table 2

TriMet Financial Resources

2004-2013 (000s)

 

 

2004

2006

2008

2011

2012

2013

% change

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Passenger fares

$ 59,487

$ 68,464

$ 80,818

$ 96,889

$ 102,240

$ 112,500

+89%

Payroll tax revenue

$ 168,378

$ 192,450

$ 215,133

$ 226,456

$ 248,384

$ 259,233

+54%

Total operations revenue

$ 315,130

$ 342,274

$ 404,481

$ 410,388

$ 488,360

$ 508,971

+62%

It’s interesting that the pollutant in question here―carbon monoxide―is a serious one that can permanently injure or kill people, and has been explicitly regulated under the Clean Air Act for over 40 years. Yet, local air quality regulators don’t care about TriMet’s non-compliance. Meanwhile, Metro is squandering a vast amount of public money on its co-called “Climate Smart Communities” plan, aimed at decreasing carbon dioxide―a harmless trace element that has never been explicitly regulated by the Clean Air Act.

In fact, the most notable consequence of increased CO2 levels in lab experiments is the faster growth of plants, which is generally thought to be a good thing. But CO2 has been demonized by environmental activists as a cause of “global warming,” so it must be regulated.

The new compliance plan for TriMet subtly changes the goal posts. By moving from a five-year rolling average to a 10-year average, and shifting the baseline year to 2008, TriMet picks a better year to begin measuring (service levels had already dropped by 2008), and gives itself more future years to “forecast” increased service, even if there is no reason to think such service will materialize. TriMet has publicly stated that the cost of employee fringe benefits must be reduced by 50% in order to restore lost service, and everyone who has watched public employee union negotiations knows that such concessions will never be made.

TriMet is a federal clean air scofflaw, but the local “regulators” are all in on the scam. For a region that prides itself as an environmental leader, this is a disgrace.

John A. Charles, Jr. is President and CEO of Cascade Policy Institute, Oregon’s free market public policy research organization.

Hospital Apologizes, PDC Repeats the Tragedy

Last Friday, Legacy Emanuel Hospital held a breakfast to apologize to the North Portland community for bulldozing nearly 300 homes and businesses 40 years ago. Hospital administrators conspired with Portland urban renewal officials to secretly plan a 55-acre expansion in the Albina neighborhood. By the time affected property owners were informed, the final decision had been made. The city used its powers of eminent domain to seize all private property within the district, destroying a vibrant African American community.

Hospital officials now admit they were wrong and promise never to do it again. Unfortunately, their colleagues at the Portland Development Commission (PDC) haven’t learned the same lesson. PDC is teaming up with TriMet to build the Portland-Milwaukie light rail line. Sixty-eight businesses and twenty residences will be destroyed to make way for the slow train, at a taxpayer cost of $1.5 billion.

This is a tragic waste of money, time, and energy. The Portland-Milwaukie corridor is already served by five TriMet buses, including express and local service. There will be no public benefits to the light rail line, yet 88 private buildings will be lost.

If urban renewal officials refuse to learn from experience, we should take away their powers. The State of California did this last year when it abolished all urban renewal districts. Oregon should do the same when the legislature convenes in 2013.

John A. Charles, Jr. is President and CEO of Cascade Policy Institute, Oregon’s free market public policy research organization.

How many presidential buses does it take to equal the cost of one light rail car?

President Obama is traveling the Midwest on a new bus purchased by the Secret Service. The vehicle is painted all-black with tinted windows and appears to be the size of a standard Greyhound bus. Inside, we can assume that it’s tricked out with the latest in high-tech security gear and telecommunications and designed with a kitchen, shower, bedroom and lounge area.

Given its purpose, the price tag must be enormous.

Actually, it’s not. It was purchased for $1.1 million. A typical light rail car in Portland costs $4 million.

Regular transit riders might want to ponder that. A light rail car has hard seats, no headrests, minimal legroom and no on-board internet access.

The Presidential bus can go on any road in America, while light rail is limited to just a small part of the Portland region.

The proposed Milwaukie light rail project will cost $1.5 billion. If we cancelled the project, we could buy an entire fleet of presidential buses and run them to Milwaukie, with free coffee and donuts for everyone, and we still couldn’t spend as much as TriMet plans to spend on one mile of light rail.

Maybe transit customers would like to try the Presidential bus for a few months before we waste $1.5 billion on a slow train to nowhere.