“Facing Reality” Report Offers Solutions to Governor Brown’s $1.7 Billion Budget Hole Without Raising Taxes

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Contacts:

Steve Buckstein (503) 242-0900

Jeff Kropf (541) 729-6229

PORTLAND, Ore. – Cascade Policy Institute and Oregon Capitol Watch Foundation jointly released a new report Wednesday, entitled Facing Reality: Suggestions to balance Oregon’s budget without raising taxes. The report offers practical solutions to fill Governor Kate Brown’s estimated $1.7 billion budget hole without raising taxes.

Facing Reality is the third budget blueprint in a series: In 2010 and 2013 Cascade Policy Institute and Americans for Prosperity-Oregon published Facing Reality reports that offered state legislators an opportunity to “reset” state government using the time-tested principles of limited government and pro-growth economic policies.

“Oregon has over one billion dollars more to spend than the last budget but is still nearly two billion short because Governor Brown’s budget continues out-of-control and unsustainable spending,” said Jeff Kropf, Executive Director of Oregon Capitol Watch Foundation. “It’s time to face the reality that raising taxes will never provide enough money to build the fantasy utopia envisioned by the Governor and current legislative leadership. There is no free lunch, and new taxes are only going to hurt the poor and the middle class.”

Facing Reality outlines $1.3 billion in reduced spending in seven specific areas which, coupled with small across-the-board agency reductions, equals $1.7 billion, enough to fill the Governor’s estimated budget hole and removing the need to raise taxes.

“Keep in mind that even with our Facing Reality budget reductions, the state of Oregon will still be spending more money than the previous budget,” said Steve Buckstein, Senior Policy Analyst and Founder of Cascade Policy Institute. “The reality the Governor and the legislature must face is that the bill for years of overspending is coming due, and raising taxes that hurt the economy is not the answer. Reducing how fast spending grows is the sustainable way forward.”

This third Facing Reality report offers politically possible solutions to meet the needs of Oregonians. It still gives most state agencies more money to spend, but without enacting new taxes being proposed by the several dozen tax increase bills introduced for consideration in the 2017 legislative session.

Here are the seven specific budget reductions proposed in Facing Reality:

Solution Impact
PERS—$100,000 cap $135 million
Department of Administrative Services—halt additional hiring $120 million
Medicaid—opt out of ACA expansion $360 million
Cover All Kids—reject expansion $55 million
Department of Human Services—targeted reductions $321 million
Department of Human Services—cash assistance reforms $160 million
State School Fund—reject Measure 98 $139 million
Total $1,290 million

For agencies not identified for specific reductions in the report, across-the-board reductions of about three percent from Governor Brown’s budget would eliminate the shortfall she identified. If this plan were implemented, none of the tax and fee increases outlined in the Governor’s budget would be necessary.

Buckstein and Kropf note, “Most Oregonians must face their own family budget realities every day. Facing Reality is a good-faith effort to hold our state government to the same budgetary realities. We look forward to working with state legislative and executive branch leaders to help implement such realities in 2017.”

Read the full report here: Facing Reality: Suggestions to balance Oregon’s budget without raising taxes

Founded in 1991, Cascade Policy Institute is a nonprofit, nonpartisan public policy research and educational organization that focuses on state and local issues in Oregon. Cascade’s mission is to develop and promote public policy alternatives that foster individual liberty, personal responsibility, and economic opportunity.  Oregon Capitol Watch Foundation is a 501(c)3 charitable educational foundation dedicated to educating Oregon citizens about how state and local governments spend their tax dollars by researching, documenting, and publicizing government spending and developing policy proposals that promote sound fiscal policies and efficient government.

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Oregon Leaders Must Reject ACA’s Medicaid Expansion

By Eric Fruits, Ph.D.

Despite an eight percent increase in general fund revenues, Governor Kate Brown and some lawmakers say the State of Oregon is facing a $1.7 billion budget shortfall in the 2017-19 biennium. In her inaugural address, the governor blames more than $1 billion of the shortfall on the state’s choice to expand Medicaid and other taxpayer-funded insurance. The Census Bureau estimates that about one in four Oregonians are in the state’s Medicaid program.

In addition to the expansion provided by the Affordable Care Act, the governor seeks new state money to expand single-payer public insurance to those who are not “lawfully present” in the United States, under a program called Cover All Kids.

Although the federal government pays a large portion of the costs of Medicaid expansion, the state’s share of the costs is growing under the ACA. The huge costs of Medicaid mean even a small increase in Oregon’s share has big impacts on the state’s budget. State Senator Elizabeth Steiner Hayward, incoming co-chair of the Ways and Means Committee for Human Services indicates that about one-third of the deficit at the Oregon Health Authority comes from what she called a “minuscule” reduction in the federal match. This deficit is certain to grow as federal support for expansion shrinks over time, as outlined in the ACA.

The state has massively underestimated the costs of Medicaid expansion in Oregon. A 2013 report prepared for the state estimated that the Medicaid expansion would cost Oregon’s general fund $217 million in the upcoming 2017-19 biennium. Janelle Evans, budget director for the Oregon Health Authority, now estimates a cost to the state’s general fund of at least $353 million. For the federal government, the cost of Oregon’s Medicaid expansion will cost more than $3.5 billion over the next two years.

Oregon simply cannot afford the ACA’s Medicaid expansion and Governor Brown’s expensive new entitlement. Nationally, expansion costs and enrollment have grown much faster than projected. Previous expansions of the Medicaid program have resulted in crowding out, the process by which taxpayer funded Medicaid replaces private health insurance. These earlier expansions have seen crowd-out rates ranging from 15 percent to 50 percent, depending on the type of expansion. Not only does the expansion crowd out private insurance, government spending on the expansion crowds out funding for other state and national priorities, such as education, infrastructure, and defense.

In Congress, repeal of much of the ACA is imminent. Oregon Congressman Greg Walden, incoming chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, is working on a timeline for repealing major provisions of the health care law, including the expansion of Medicaid. In the absence of repeal, Congress should consider an enrollment freeze approach. A freeze would halt new enrollment while allowing current enrollees to stay in the program until their incomes climb above eligibility limits. It would be an intermediate step towards repeal with immediate benefits for taxpayers and current enrollees.

However repeal of the ACA rolls out, Oregon’s congressional delegation should be at the forefront of ending the Medicaid expansion as soon as possible. While Congress works through the details, Oregon can take steps in the upcoming legislative session to protect the state’s fragile finances. One first step would be to opt out of the ACA’s Medicaid expansion and reject Governor Brown’s proposal to expand coverage even further. As noted in the governor’s inaugural address, the state’s choice to expand Medicaid is the single largest source of the impending budget deficit. Rejecting the health care law’s expansion is the clearest path to fiscal solvency and financial responsibility.


Eric Fruits, Ph.D. is president and chief economist at Economics International Corp., an Oregon based consulting firm specializing in economics, finance, and statistics. He is also an adjunct professor of economics at Portland State University, an Academic Advisor to Cascade Policy Institute, and author of Cascade’s report, The Oregon Health Plan: A “Bold Experiment” That FailedThis article originally appeared in The Oregonian on January 27, 2017.

What Would Jefferson Advise Today’s Supreme Court About the Little Sisters of the Poor?

In 1804 an Ursuline nun in New Orleans asked Thomas Jefferson to clarify in writing her religious community’s right to retain their property and to continue their ministries without government interference following the Louisiana Purchase. As French Catholic Louisiana was being incorporated into the Anglo-Protestant United States, the nuns were concerned about the status of their institutions under U.S. law. President Jefferson assured her that the government would not interfere with the sisters’ property, ministries, and way of life. In a letter dated May 15, 1804, he wrote:

“I have received, holy sisters, the letter you have written me wherein you express anxiety for the property vested in your institution….The principles of the constitution and government of the United States are a guarantee to you that it will be preserved to you, sacred and inviolate, and that your institution will be permitted to govern itself according to its own voluntary rules, without interference from the civil authority.”

Jefferson confidently promised that the American Constitution would protect the nuns and that the government would leave them alone. So why don’t Catholic sisters today even qualify for a religious exemption from ObamaCare’s insurance mandate that requires contraception and abortion coverage? It may seem unbelievable, but according to the Obama Administration’s definition of “religious employer,” sisters are not included.

On March 23 the U.S. Supreme Court will hear oral arguments on behalf the Little Sisters of the Poor (and other religious clients of the Becket Fund for Religious Liberty) in a historic religious freedom case. The Little Sisters are a nearly 200-year-old religious community dedicated to caring for the elderly poor. They run 30 homes in the U.S. (four in the West) and care for nearly 13,000 people in 31 countries.

During implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (ObamaCare), the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) directed most employers to include coverage of contraceptives and abortion-inducing drugs in their employee health insurance policies, or else pay a fine of $100 per employee, per day. The Sisters subsequently filed suit against the federal government, saying “they cannot, according to their faith, include contraceptives in their employee health plan.”

The Becket Fund, which represents the Sisters and other religious clients in their lawsuit, explains:

“The Court’s decision will finally resolve the crucial question of whether governmental agencies can, wholly without legislative oversight, needlessly force religious ministries to violate their faith….The [HHS] mandate forces the Little Sisters to authorize the government to use the Sisters’ employee healthcare plan to provide contraceptives and abortion-inducing drugs—a violation of their faith—or pay massive fines, which would threaten their religious mission.”

The “HHS Mandate” has a narrow conscience exemption that applies only to organizations whose purpose is solely to inculcate religious values and which employ and serve primarily members of their own faith. The exemption does not include religiously affiliated or faith-based institutions which serve all people without discrimination (like hospitals, colleges, schools, and social service agencies). And it doesn’t apply to communities of nuns.

“The Little Sisters should not have to fight their own government to get an exemption it has already given to thousands of other employers, including Exxon, Pepsi Cola Bottling Company, and Boeing,” said Becket Fund Senior Counsel Mark Rienzi. “Nor should the government be allowed to say that the Sisters aren’t ‘religious enough’ to merit the exemption that churches and other religious ministries have received….It is ridiculous for the federal government to claim, in this day and age, that it can’t figure out how to distribute contraceptives without involving nuns and their health plans.”

Thomas Jefferson explained to the Ursuline nuns of 19th-century Louisiana that American law would protect them and their institutions, regardless of the differences among American citizens:

“Whatever the diversity of shade may appear in the religious opinions of our fellow citizens, the charitable objects of your institution cannot be indifferent to any; and its furtherance of the wholesome purposes of society, by training up its younger members in the way they should go, cannot fail to ensure it the patronage of the government it is under. Be assured it will meet all the protection which my office can give it.”

We can only imagine what Jefferson might think of American women having to sue the Obama Administration to defend their First Amendment rights. But can we doubt he would be dismayed by how intrusive and coercive the federal government has become since the day he wrote so cordially to a group of French nuns about the safeguards of the American Constitution?

 

How Washington Is Disinheriting American Kids

By Jared Meyer and Kathryn Hickok

Is Washington, D.C. disinheriting America’s kids? You bet. Achieving the American Dream will be more difficult for the next generation because policies and programs created by politicians and bureaucrats in Washington restrict economic opportunity for the young.

The expansion of entitlement benefits and government services places a major future financial burden on the young. The federal government’s $18 trillion debt is only the tip of the iceberg. Unfunded liabilities driven by Social Security and Medicare push the total federal fiscal shortfall to more than $200 trillion.

The Affordable Care Act has raised health insurance premiums for younger adults. While people under 30 only spend an average of $600 a year on health care, young people cannot pay less than one-third of what older people pay.

And these are only two examples of the financial burden our government is placing on the next generation.

Many think a larger government, and higher taxes to pay for it, would benefit young people. This isn’t true. The key to restoring Millennials’ lost economic opportunity is for government to get out of people’s way.

Washington is robbing America’s young. Our country is facing a crisis, and change is essential for young people to achieve the kind of future their parents and grandparents worked hard to build. Otherwise, the bill will eventually come due, and the next generation will pick up the tab.

Jared Meyer is a fellow at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research and the coauthor with Diana Furchtgott-Roth of Disinherited: How Washington Is Betraying America’s Young (Encounter Books, May 2015). Cascade Policy Institute will host Meyer to speak on this topic in Portland on October 22, 2015. Kathryn Hickok is Publications Director at Cascade Policy Institute.

Washington’s War on Millennials

By Jared Meyer

Tens of millions of Americans are between the ages of 18 and 30, and achieving success will be more difficult for these so-called Millennials than it was for young people in the past. This is because politicians and bureaucrats in Washington have put in place policies that restrict economic opportunity for the young.

It does not have to be this way.

Washington’s expansion of entitlement benefits and other government services places a major future financial burden on the young—one that many did not even vote for. The federal government has a debt of $18 trillion, but this is only the tip of the iceberg. Unfunded liabilities driven by Social Security and Medicare push the total federal fiscal shortfall to more than $200 trillion.

As if this were not enough, the Affordable Care Act has raised health insurance premiums for the young in an effort to pay for older Americans’ health care. Now, even though people under 30 only spend an average of $600 a year on health care, young people cannot pay less than one-third of what older people pay.

In elementary and secondary school, ineffective teachers are protected from being fired. This serves the interests of older teachers and their unions, but it harms those who would benefit from high-quality teachers. Common-sense reforms to improve education outcomes such as vouchers and charter schools are consistently opposed by teachers unions.

In their college years, young people are encouraged to attend a university even though four in ten college freshmen fail to graduate within six years. The current system of excessive federal student aid raises the cost of college tuition, which forces students to take on mountains of debt.

As if this were not enough, after high school or college graduation, Washington and state governments prevent young people from entering the job market. Occupational licensing requirements are meant to protect public safety, but often they mostly protect established businesses and workers. This comes at the expense of everyday consumers, entrepreneurs, and young workers, as unnecessary licensing makes many promising career paths too prohibitively expensive or time-consuming to enter.

Minimum wage laws, though they may seem well intentioned, make it more difficult for young and low-skilled workers to acquire valuable experience. Again, the government is telling young people that they are not free to work. Destructive labor-market laws need to be scaled back so that the first step on the career ladder can again be within reach.

Some think that if government were larger and gave more handouts, and taxes were raised to pay for these programs, then young people would do better. However, this would only make matters worse. Government tends to pick winners and losers, and the politically unorganized young are ineffective at lobbying for their interests. The key to restoring Millennials’ lost economic opportunity is for government to get out of their way.

Washington is robbing America’s young. Our country is facing a crisis, and change is essential for young people to achieve the future they deserve.

Jared Meyer is a fellow at the Manhattan Institute for Policy Research and the coauthor with Diana Furchtgott-Roth of Disinherited: How Washington Is Betraying America’s Young (Encounter Books, May 2015). Cascade Policy Institute will host Meyer to speak on this topic in Portland on Thursday evening, October 22. This article was originally published by The Salem Statesman Journal.

Taxpayers Ultimately Get the Bill for Oregon’s Medicaid Expansion

By Thomas Tullis

Thirty states have already undertaken the Medicaid expansion encouraged by the Affordable Care Act. In Oregon, more than one in 4 people are now enrolled in Medicaid. Enrollment is nearly twice as high as originally thought, and now lawmakers are looking at a half-billion-dollar state deficit after grossly miscalculating the projection.

In an attempt to reconcile the $300 million Cover Oregon fiasco, the Kitzhaber administration had centered in on fast-track Medicaid enrollment. Oregonians were incentivized and encouraged to sign up for Medicaid, with ObamaCare extending the eligibility requirements to adults earning up to 138% of the federal poverty level.

With the expansion’s 76% increase in monthly enrollment, Oregon’s growth is second only to Kentucky. While many states have not expanded and have seen little to no growth in enrollment, Oregon boasts some of the highest percentages of average annual growth in Medicaid spending over the last few years.

As the federal government will soon require Oregon and other states to be responsible for part of Medicaid costs, lawmakers are already talking about increasing the nearly two-billion-dollar bipartisan hospital tax that Governor Kate Brown signed in March.

Health insurance policy is in desperate need of market-based reforms. A competitive free market can ensure quality and affordability. Government handouts and regulations simply drive up costs that in this case will be borne by taxpayers.

Thomas Tullis is a research associate at Cascade Policy Institute, Oregon’s free market think tank. He is a student at the University of Oregon, where he is studying Journalism and Political Science.

Press Release – Statement on the Supreme Court’s King v. Burwell Decision

June 25, 2015

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

Media Contact:

Steve Buckstein

503-242-0900

steven@cascadepolicy.org

Cascade Policy Institute Statement on Today’s Supreme Court King v. Burwell Decision: More Oregonians will lose rather than win

PORTLAND, Ore. – The U.S. Supreme Court decision today in the King v. Burwell case is a sad reminder that the President of the United States and his Administration can arbitrarily interpret laws passed by Congress to suit their own purposes.

In this case, the Affordable Care Act clearly states multiple times in its text that federal subsidies to offset insurance premiums can only be granted to individuals purchasing policies through an exchange “established by the state.” When most states failed to establish such exchanges, the IRS arbitrarily decided to grant subsidies to individuals who purchased insurance through the federal exchange, healthcare.gov, as well. By a six to three vote, the Court told us that the President and his Administration need not follow the language of the law because in the Court’s opinion that could cause harm to the intent of the law which was to make insurance more affordable.

How this decision will affect Oregon is fairly clear. Oregon originally set up its own state-established exchange, Cover Oregon. But when that $305 million project failed to sign up one person for insurance on its flawed website, the Cover Oregon board voted to scrap the exchange and migrate Oregonians over to the federal exchange, healthcare.gov. Board members didn’t seem to care how this decision might impact subsidies for Oregonians, and after the fact said they were relying on federal assurances that they considered this arrangement a “supported state based marketplace”—meaning that it would still qualify for subsidies even if the Court were to rule opposite of how it ruled today.

What is clear now is that today’s decision could actually harm more Americans, and more Oregonians, than it helps. According to a March 3rd press release by Michael Cannon of the Cato Institute and Cascade Policy Institute’s Steve Buckstein, “If subsides are denied under a King ruling, Oregon will join the majority of states in reaping benefits.” Now that the King ruling has found for the government, the Cato Institute believes that “approximately 157,000 [Oregon] individuals likely will continue to be subject to the law’s individual mandate requirement,” and 890,000 working Oregonians “also will continue to be subject to the employer mandates that are putting downward pressure on our economy.” These negative results stem from the ACA’s provisions that as long as subsidies make insurance somehow “affordable,” then the act’s mandates to purchase it remain in place.

Cascade Senior Policy Analyst Steve Buckstein says, “Today’s Court decision does not end the discussion about who should control your health care and who should decide what, if any, insurance you must purchase at what price; but it does push that discussion farther into the future. It unfortunately postpones our ability to move toward a more individual, patient-centered health care and health insurance world. Oregonians who watched their state government bungle an expansive insurance exchange project using other people’s money should be a big part of this discussion.”

Will the Supreme Court’s Ruling on Subsidies Be ObamaCare’s Downfall?

By Sally C. Pipes

The battle over ObamaCare has shifted to the courts. This time, the president is on the defensive. Last month, a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit ruled 2-1 in Halbig v. Burwell that the federal government lacks the authority to provide subsidies to offset the cost of health insurance to folks shopping for coverage on HealthCare.gov, the federally run exchange. The federal government has since asked the full Circuit Court to hear the case.

The same day that the D.C. Circuit panel issued its ruling, the Court of Appeals for the Fourth Circuit, based in Richmond, Virginia, arrived at the opposite conclusion in a similar case, King v. Burwell, and upheld the federal subsidies as legal. The disagreement practically begs the U.S. Supreme Court to weigh in. The plaintiffs in King v. Burwell have petitioned the U.S. Supreme Court for cert. If granted, the case will go to the high court. It’s unlikely that the high court will hand down a decision until spring or fall 2015.

The D.C. Circuit panel has the law on its side. Should the Supremes agree with them, then ObamaCare could quickly unravel. And if it does, Congress should be ready with a replacement health care reform plan that empowers doctors and patients, not the federal government.

The Affordable Care Act’s text is unambiguous about how the insurance exchanges are supposed to work. According to the law, federal subsidies are available through exchanges “established by the State.” Thirty-six states didn’t set up exchanges. In some cases, their elected leaders decided not to. Other states tried to build their own. In many cases—among them Oregon, Maryland, Vermont, and Hawaii―they failed.

The law provided that the federal government would step in if the states did not. As a result, the federal government has found itself running an exchange that serves more than two-thirds of the states. And it’s decided, based on the counsel of the legal eagles at the IRS, to ignore those four words— “established by the State”—in order to dole out subsidies.

Even as it sided with the federal government, the Fourth Circuit observed, “If Congress did in fact intend to make the tax credits available to consumers on both state and federal Exchanges, it would have been easy to write in broader language, as it did in other places in the statute.” The court, which ruled for the government, went on to say that it “cannot ignore the common-sense appeal of the plaintiffs’ argument; a literal reading of the statute undoubtedly accords more closely with their position.”

ObamaCare’s supporters argue that “congressional intent” justifies direct federal subsidies. But they’ll have a tough time proving that before the Supreme Court. An early version of the health care reform bill did include an explicit authorization to distribute subsidies through a federal exchange. But it was absent from the final version.

That’s a problem for the Obama Administration, as U.S. Supreme Court precedent holds “that Congress does not intend sub silentio to enact statutory language that was earlier discarded in favor of other language.” Or as another Supreme Court decision put it, “the starting point for interpreting a statute is the language of the statute itself. Absent a clearly expressed legislative intention to the contrary, that language must ordinarily be regarded as conclusive.”

If the Supremes forbid the Obama Administration from distributing subsidies through the federal exchange, the law will crumble. That’s because many, if not most, exchange shoppers will be unable to afford policies without subsidies. As more and more people go without insurance, the exchange pool will skew sicker and premiums will head higher.

Already, average monthly premiums for a mid-level silver plan are $324. They’ll rise 8 percent next year, according to Avalere, a consulting firm. Eighty-seven percent of the people in the 36 states that rely on the federal exchange are receiving subsidies. Without those subsidies, premiums for some 5 million people will spike dramatically. The disappearance of subsidies would also destroy the employer mandate, which requires employers with more than 50 full-time workers to provide insurance coverage.

Fortunately, there are other ways to expand access to affordable insurance. Subsidizing insurance does little to encourage insurers to rein in premiums. In fact, if distributed as a percentage of premiums, subsidies can reward them for hiking prices. Expanding competition among insurers, by contrast, can make insurance more affordable and drive down costs. Creating a truly national marketplace—where Americans could purchase health insurance across state lines—would do just that. There’s no reason insurance should cost 2.5 times more in Rhode Island than in Alabama.

Allowing individuals to purchase health insurance tax-free—just as those who have employer-sponsored insurance through their work can—would also make coverage more affordable. Most Americans get health insurance through their place of work. So they have little incentive to consume care judiciously. After all, they’re not paying the bill. Increased usage of the health care system leads to higher overall premiums.

Two years ago, ObamaCare’s individual mandate survived before the U.S. Supreme Court. The law’s exchange subsidies may not be so lucky.

Sally C. Pipes is President, CEO, and Taube Fellow in Health Care Studies at the Pacific Research Institute in San Francisco. She is a guest contributor for Cascade Policy Institute. A version of this article was originally published by Forbes.

How Jefferson Explained the Constitution to Louisiana Nuns

This week in 1804, Thomas Jefferson wrote to an Ursuline nun in New Orleans, who had asked him to clarify her religious community’s rights under U.S. law after the Louisiana Purchase. President Jefferson assured her that the American government would never interfere with the nuns’ property, ministries, or way of life.

 

Jefferson wrote, “The principles of the constitution and government of the United States are a guarantee to you that it will be preserved to you, sacred and inviolate, and that your institution will be permitted to govern itself according to its own voluntary rules, without interference from the civil authority.”

 

Two hundred ten years after Jefferson wrote that letter, a community of sisters who care for the elderly is defending in court their right to carry out their ministries in accordance with their faith. Under current federal regulations, the Little Sisters of the Poor don’t qualify for a religious exemption from the ObamaCare insurance mandate which requires most employers to provide contraception and abortion coverage.

 

Like the Ursuline nuns of Jefferson’s time, Catholic sisters today should not lose their religious freedom while working in their own ministries. We can imagine what Jefferson might think of American women having to sue the government to defend their First Amendment rights. But can we doubt he would be dismayed by how intrusive and coercive the federal government has become since the day he explained the safeguards of the American Constitution to a group of French nuns?

Kathryn Hickok is Publications Director and Director of the Children’s Scholarship Fund-Portland program at Cascade Policy Institute.

ObamaCare Inflates Enrollment—And Premiums

By Sally C. Pipes

HealthCare.gov has officially closed and, despite months of technical hiccups, enrollment appears to have finished strong.

The Obama Administration estimates that 8 million people have signed up for coverage through the marketplaces. The president cited the figure as proof that “this law has made our health care system a lot better.”

Hardly. His enrollment numbers are artificially inflated. And the real rate of coverage may decline even further once consumers find out how much they’ll have to pay for insurance thanks to ObamaCare.

For starters, the administration’s 8 million enrollees include everyone who picked a plan—not just those who have actually paid for their coverage.

Insurers are reporting that 15% to 20% of those who have signed up haven’t paid their first premium. In other words, about 1.5 million people that the Administration counts as “enrolled” may still be uninsured.

Just because a consumer pays his first premium doesn’t mean he’ll make his second payment.

Insurance industry consultant Bob Laszewski has reported that 2% to 5% of enrollees haven’t paid their second month’s premium. If that sort of attrition continues, thousands of “enrollees” could end up uninsured before summer.

Further, many of ObamaCare’s 8 million enrollees previously had insurance—they just swapped out their existing policies for ones issued through the exchanges.

A recent RAND Corp. survey found that only one-third of exchange enrollees were previously uninsured.

The Congressional Budget Office reports that ObamaCare will spend $17 billion on exchange subsidies this year. A big chunk of that money will no doubt go to the two-thirds of exchange customers who previously secured coverage on their own.

Not exactly the wisest stewardship of taxpayer dollars.

Meanwhile, about a million of the 5 million people whose policies were canceled because they did not meet ObamaCare’s new rules remain uninsured.

The demographic composition of the exchange population also presents a problem.

Because the law forbids insurance companies from charging the old and sick more than three times what they charge the young and healthy, insurers must attract enough young, low-cost people to keep premiums down.

That hasn’t happened. Just 28% are between the ages of 18 and 34—well below the 40% the Administration said would be needed to keep ObamaCare’s exchange pools financially stable. It’s already clear that the exchange population is sicker than average.

According to a report from pharmacy benefit manager Express Scripts, exchange enrollees use 47% more specialty medications than the general insured population.

Demand for HIV meds is four times higher in the ObamaCare pool than in the existing commercial pool. Anti-seizure medication prescription rates are 27% higher.

Those drugs are more expensive. As Express Scripts puts it, “Increased volume for higher cost specialty drugs can have a significant impact on the cost burden for both plan sponsors and patients.”

Insurers will adjust to this reality by raising premiums. WellPoint predicts “double-digit-plus” rate increases across the country. In some areas premiums could go up 100%.

Cigna CEO David Cordani says his company has already brought up the coming “rate shock” with the Administration—and is pushing for changes to mitigate it.

ObamaCare’s exchanges appear to have survived their first enrollment period. But the government health-insurance platforms are far less healthy than the administration claims—and may crumble when they next open for business this fall.

Sally C. Pipes is President, CEO, and Taube Fellow in Health Care Studies at the Pacific Research Institute in San Francisco. She is a guest contributor for Cascade Policy Institute. A version of this article was originally published by Investors Business Daily.

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